AfD Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Warns of Growing Voter Frustration, Expert Says
Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition government must acknowledge the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's victory in Saxony-Anhalt and address the voter discontent behind it, or risk accelerating their own political decline, a political scientist has warned.
Nicolas Spohn, an expert on East German state politics, told Euronews that the federal government's response to the election results will be pivotal. Final results from the election in the eastern German state of 2.1 million people showed the AfD securing 43.8% of the vote, more than doubling its performance from five years ago. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz's party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), fell to 17.2%.
"First of all, it really is a historic victory for the AfD, and it is an earthquake for the rest of the parties," Spohn said. The victory marks the first time a far-right party has come within reach of power at the state level in Germany since World War II.
National Implications and Voter Frustration
The election outcome has raised significant questions regarding its impact on national politics. Thorsten Frei, the CDU leader in Germany's federal parliament, the Bundestag, denied that the party's poor performance in Saxony-Anhalt would have consequences at the national level.
However, Spohn warned that this dismissive stance could backfire. "But this is what frustrates people," Spohn said, adding that "turning a blind eye to the warnings of elections like in Saxony-Anhalt could give the AfD more votes."
The federal government's challenges are compounded by Chancellor Merz's declining popularity, driven by a failure to deliver on pre-election promises, particularly his pledge to revive Germany's stagnant economy. A recent YouGov poll indicated that only 16% of Germans hold a favourable opinion of Merz.
"The election here shows that the CDU must, on the national level, correct their political course," Spohn explained. "A lot of people are frustrated with the work of the CDU. They promised different things than what they achieved after the elections. The economy is doing worse than before the last election on the national level."
Economic Pressures and Regional Demographics
Spohn acknowledged that some economic pressures, such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, are outside of Chancellor Merz's direct control. Nonetheless, he noted that German citizens continue to feel the economic consequences of these global events.
This economic discontent is highly pronounced in Saxony-Anhalt, where Merz's approval rating has dropped to just over 9%. Spohn suggested that this dissatisfaction, rather than ideological alignment, was the primary driver of the election result.
"It is not genuine support for the AfD's agenda, but rather for the [idea associated with the party] of doing everything differently," Spohn said. He added that "40% of the voters do not vote for the AfD because of its far-right policies, but rather despite such policies. People in eastern Germany are not more right-wing; they are simply more frustrated."
Saxony-Anhalt, formerly part of East Germany, has lost a quarter of its population since German reunification in 1990, marking the largest population decline of any German state over the last 35 years. This demographic shift is especially visible in rural areas and among young people, who face teacher shortages and limited career prospects.
Upcoming Regional Elections
The AfD carries strong momentum into upcoming regional elections in Berlin and the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, both scheduled in just under two weeks. Current voter intent polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania place the AfD in the lead with approximately 35% support.
To counter this trend, Spohn argued that the CDU must offer a more positive vision for the electorate. "At the moment, we don't have this positive vision, and the AfD is the only party giving voters some kind of positive outlook, which was, 'everything is possible'. So, everything can also be different," Spohn said.
